The Ememging Pathogens Institute Seminar Series
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A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Cholera Epidemics in the Cameroon Side of Lake Chand Basin
Arabi Mouhaman, Ph.D.
Department of Environmental Sciences
Higher Institute of the Sahel
the University of Maroua
Since the year 2000, the incidence of cholera has increased steadily, culminating in 317 534 reported cases worldwide, including 7,543 deaths, in 2010, with a case-fatality rate of 2.38%. In the year 2010, the four countries around Lake Chad were affected by one of the most significant epidemics since the emergence of cholera in the West African region in 1970. The extent of the epidemic was estimated at 57,000 cases and 2,400 deaths in these four countries. During this epidemic, the Cameroonian side (Far North) alone recorded more than 9000 cases of cholera with about 600 deaths.
Using weekly epidemiological data of reported cases from 1996 to 2010, and environmental parameters such as rainfall, humidity and temperature, we applied time series analysis, GIS analysis and scan statistics to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of cholera epidemics in the Cameroon side of Lake Chad. The temporal pattern shows that the epidemics occur mainly during the wet seasons and that there are significant differences in both incidence and timing by health districts. The spatial pattern shows that there are hotspots and cool spots of cholera in the study area.